Covid Bullshit Fatigue

Since Sept 1 I decided it was best to just stay in. I think everyone expected things to get worse in the fall and numbers have certainly gone up but it is quite disturbing that the government seems to have no idea how. 

One of the key points of contact tracing is to learn how. But they won't even share the contact tracing data. The other problem is reporting aggregate case numbers while the bulk of the cases are from long term care facilities.

What Are We Learning From Contact Tracing?

Maybe they know where the virus is transmitting but for some reason it would be difficult to deal with politically so they aren't telling to avoid backlash. That's disturbing because we're supposed to have a transparent government.

Or they have no idea which is a complete failure to progress our understanding of the virus and develop safe guidelines to allow us to live a bit. But all they can do is lock down, the same brute force solution they had in April. It's a failure to progress.

It is possible that this virus is just so contagious that there is no other solution but at the very least they could try to justify the need to lock down with some real data instead of just throwing their hands up and expect that to be ok with people.

Case Reporting Disinformation?

My other frustration is that the daily reporting in Ottawa and Ontario shares daily numbers by age but doesn't separate out institutional cases. Yet, I saw in several places in late summer that 80% of the cases in Canada were institutional - long term care, prisons, etc.

What's needed to protect institutionalised people vs. rest of us are very different problems. For instance, someone in an institution aren't circulating in public - going out to Loblaws, restaurants, etc.

Conflating the data for these two problems is a disservice to both. So much so that it isn't useful to me. Nearly at all.

It makes one wonder if the government only reports combined data to help justify their actions. Certainly the numbers are worrisome. But if 80% of them continue to be in a contained, institutional population then the numbers that affect the rest of us are a lot less alarming and perhaps they fear that people won't be as worried if the case numbers in people circulating in society were 20% lower. That's 1/5 of the size. Would people only be 1/5 as worried?

Also, if the institutional cases are still 80% then WTF? How long are we going to ignore the problem of looking after these people? It makes one wonder if this failure to protect long term care homes is so embarrasing that they are afraid to continue to remind us.

The bottom line is that the information that is being shared is not helpful. It is not misinformation but rendering it so uninformative by conflating it could be considered disinformation.

Covid Fatigue?

The government wants compliance from us but is not communicating effectively. I don't even listen anymore. It doesn't help me at all. 

I'm resigned to this condition of limbo. I mostly stay at home and I comply with regulation but otherwise they have lost me. I keep busy, zoom chat regularly with my social circle, try to stay in shape and wait.

This failure to communicate fuels the conspiracy theorists but also breaks down our faith that we can return to normal and makes people complacent. I can't blame people for being frustrated. The administrations call it covid fatigue. It's almost an excuse, like it absolves them of their failures to learn and communicate. I think it's more like bullshit fatigue. They need to do much better.

Anyway, for better or worse, all we can do is wait for the vaccine. Luckily Nov was pretty warm. I even got out for a bike ride to Fitzroy Harbour. But it's the hardest part of the year for me until skiing starts in Jan.

The vaccine rollout may mean that I can travel next year in the fall. It's a long time away but least it's something to look forward to.

Covid-19 How Can the WHO continue to be so wrong

One of the worst things about this pandemic is the lack of facts leading to conflicting and flat out wrong advice being give to people all across North America at least and probably much of the world.

I, for one implicitly trusted the WHO. When we were watching events unfold in China early on there was no sense of anxiety. The WHO advised countries that closing borders was ineffective and unnecessary. This may be the biggest mistake they made - who knows how early containment could have affected where we are now.

Trump has focused on the influence that China had on the WHO as his excuse to defund them. Certainly Chinese deception and influence does seem to have affected the whole trajectory of this pandemic and needs to be addressed but this is not the extent of the WHO's failure.

In some ways, their ongoing mistakes could be causing even more harm.

Blindness to Past and Blatantly Weak (and bad) Advice

Perhaps their most egregious error is that bad early advice regarding masks. Although there has been plenty of evidence that masks help contain the spread of viruses that are spread through the air by small water droplets and it was early known that this was a primary cause of transmission of Covid-19, the WHO advised that masks were ineffective.

I'm left shaking my head. In every pandemic threat we seem to have to relearn the basic fact that masks help limit the spread of an airborne contagion. Most significantly, cautionary advice following the SARS epidemic concluded that masks were effective for a very similar virus and should recommended as part of any response plan.

The 6' social distancing rule was derived from the knowledge of how far water droplets can typically travel before falling to the ground. This almost universal social distancing rule is the biggest endorsement that there could possibly be for masks. It tells us that our health leaders were confident that spread was by droplets.

With masks that distance is much shorter. Much less restrictive lock downs could have been achieved simply by using masks. It is tragic to think how much less we would have had to affect our economies if masks had been advocated early on.

A related misunderstanding was the relative safety of outdoor activity. This is also patently obvious when considering spread by droplets. The infinite air volume outside and the omnipresence of some level of breeze means that virus will very quickly dissipate outdoors. We never needed to close ski hills, hiking trails, golf courses etc. Social distancing is still advisable but the low density of people in most outdoor activities makes it trivial to achieve safe outdoor activity. Venues with denser population like beaches and popular parks are problematic but with reasonable levels of social distancing are still relatively very safe.

We could have kept more of the economy open - restaurant patios for instance. Instead, we are faced with a very grim future for the restaurant business. Many restaurants have already closed their doors permanently with more to follow.

Now that we are reopening, we are leveraging the effectiveness of masks and the relative safety of outdoor activity. Consider that this level of lock down is probably all that was ever needed.

I am happy that Canada erred on the side of our safety. I think that was more important than the economy. However, imagine how much better things could have been with better advice coming out of the WHO to guide our world leaders.

Reopening Indoor Activity

Now we are mostly faced with problems reopening indoor activity and recent information about the role of aerosol born virus is potentially very important to proper assessment of the kinds of activities that are safe indoors. Aerosol refers to much smaller airborne particles that can remain aloft for much longer periods of time.

At first the WHO said aerosol transmission was insignificant prompting a large ad hoc group of doctors to write an open letter to the WHO pleading with them to acknowledge the role of aerosol transmission. While it seems true that aerosol transmission has been very low it also seems that it will become more of a threat as we reopen more indoor activities and once again it seems that the WHO is again going to be sadly, blindly wrong.

Aerosols seem to be produced when there is more aggressive breathing or activity in the throat and mouth - intubation for ventilators, dental procedures were early situation where aerosol transmission was suspected. However more recently, there is growing anecdotal evidence that loud talking, singing and, likely, exercise also can produce aerosols.

That should tell us that some businesses, e.g. gyms with agressive breating are very problematic , churches with loud group singing are worrisome and that any environment with numbers of people in a contained air volume is also problematic. I, for one, do not feel comfortable at this point getting on a plane.

In areas like most of Canada where we have successfully contained the virus, there is not very much virus in circulation so nearly any activity is relatively safe. However, that is not true in other parts of North America. There are blooms of virus in many southern states. The role of aerosolized virus could be very important in how we deal with indoor activity.

Abandoning the Elderly

The saddest thing in Ontario is that while we locked down the general population way more than necessary we ignored the health of our most vulnerable elderly population in long term care homes. The government new that elderly were most at risk and that indoor settings were problematic but no one thought to evaluate the safety of these homes and protect these people.

While that should perhaps have been obvious it also falls on the WHO  and health leaders to give more clear practical advice to help world governments make good policy.

How Can We Expect People to Trust Science

Mistrust of science is quite widespread and its not that hard to understand why when the people that we trust to give us good advice are so consistently, irresponsibly wrong.

When faced with unknowns they should have been more prudent. 

• The WHO knew early on that this had the hallmarks of a pandemic. It would have been prudent to advise limiting travel.
• They knew that a primary means of transmission was breath. It would have been prudent to recommend the use of masks.
• There is a growing body of evidence that aerosol transmission is happening. It would be prudent to identify indoor activities that are prone to risk of aerosol virus.

I think in each case, the WHO has eventually retracted their bad advice and support the facts. They are not evil. They are smply not up to the task.

Flip flopping is devastating to trust. How many people are still rebelling against the use of masks. They cite lack of agreement and conflicting advice from our leaders.

A pandemic happens fast. Much can't be known 100% at the beginning. I think it is far better to advise prudence than to wait for certainty.

I don't know the answer but at present I do not trust the WHO, at all.

This isn't over yet though. We need leadership. We need them to be better.

What's Next - Prevention, Treatment, Vaccine

The WHO could still have a helpful role. A lot of hope is on a vaccine but despite many efforts there has never been a successful coronavirus type vaccine so a banking everything on a vaccine is naive at best.

In the interim we need to do all that we can to help prevent people from contracting the virus and improving the recovery of peope that do.

One promising area of prevention is the weird anti-correlation with smoking observed in European countries that still have prevalent numbers of smokers. The belief is that the responsible agent is nicotine. This deserves to be talked about more openly with more dedicated study.

In severe cases the immune system overreacts with devastating effect. The virus may not be solely a direct killer. but it is responsible for a cascade of events that overwhelms our system. A promising area of treatment is to stabilize the rest of the body's systems until the virus can be fought off.

Consider a future without a vaccine. In that world, we would all eventually be exposed to the virus. A preventative agent that blocks infection or a treatment that improves our survival rate is the next best thing.

There is still a need for strong leadership.

Weight and Health II

I've learned a lot about diet and weight loss since my Weight and Health post. It's not so simple as I thought. It still comes down to self discipline but the body's metabolism is not very simple at all. Knowing more about how it uses and stores energy has empowered me to be in better control of my weight.

The revelation for me was learning more about our fat burning energy cycle. We all know that we have to burn ready energy before we can burn fat but the way it works suggests a path to better control of our bodies and a path to weight loss.

I'm going to focus on facts and observations first.

Fact 1 - the cruel fact

It is very difficult to lose weight while eating a carb rich diet.

Carbs are very quickly processed to fat. Insulin triggers your body to store excess sugar away. First to glycogen (short term storage) and then to fat. This process is merciless. You have a very short window of time to burn your meal or you get new fat. It’s hard to achieve net weight loss when your body is so aggressive at making new fat.

Fact 2 - the good fact

Your body has two parallel energy cycles.

Accessing energy from fat is a completely different energy system. It doesn’t just convert fat to sugar, like I used to assume. Every cell in your body is able to run on both types of energy. However, it seems that the fat cycle can atrophy with a constant supply of carb rich food.

Fact 3

The carb and fat energy cycles run in parallel.

The transition between the two energy cycles isn’t a switch - as glucose reserves start to deplete, fat processing increases and vice versa. The transitions overlap and should be seamless.

Theory

I'm not a dietitian or doctor but it seems to me that if those transitions aren't seamless and you are getting that ‘hangry’ feeling or crashing (dizziness, nausea during exercise) that your fat based energy system isn't activating fast enough and it seem logical that if you can activate it that those feelings can be reduced or eliminated.

There is opportunity in these symptoms. If your solution is to feed your body carbs then your body doesn't need to activate its fat based energy system. It can be lazy. This is opportunity!

Challenge

What happens if you challenge your carb dependence?

Logically, it seems that you can force your fat based system to wake up. Can we do this while avoiding the unpleasant symptoms?

Lets say your hangry feeling happens if you miss or delay breakfast, a common scenario. Here's a challenge to try:

• Trade at least half your breakfast carbs up to more complex proteins/fats for a month.
• Go gradually. Allow yourself days off.
• Record what you did for breakfast and how you felt after. This is maybe even harder than swapping foods.
• Otherwise, keep doing what you’re doing. We’re just focusing on the observed time when you’re fat cycle doesn’t seem to be activating.

If your symptoms happen during exercise, you can similarly try replacing some of the carb snacks that you have before/during with more complex proteins/fats.

Food Substitutions

Breakfast alternatives

Traditional bacon/ham/sausage, eggs.

Avocado. Avocado toast is a good, tasty gateway. Later you can drop the toast.

Smoothies. I think healthy, low carb smoothies are pretty gross, but lots of people swear by them.

Another Fact

There is a potential cheat.

Bulletproof coffee. There is lots of hype and ‘bulletproof’ is a trademark but the metabolic underpinning is real - MCT oil has a short circuit in your digestive system so they are fast acting and many people have said that they can prevent/curb that hangry feeling. Don’t like coffee? - I think you can forget the coffee. Just take the oil with breakfast or before/during exercise. 

They are also metabolized through your fat based energy system directly so they may also help jumpstart it. Amazingly, a tablespoon has 115 calories! They sell it at Costco in Kanata. Also on Amazon.

An Advantage of More Complex Calories

There is a weight reduction advantage of reduced carb diet. More complex foods make you feel full faster and for longer and can help with both portion control and urge to snack.

The Gain

If you can activate your fat energy cycle, you will have a much easier time losing weight and more options for doing so. Specifically, if you can stop snacking on carbs to prevent these uncomfortable feelings your will be enabling your body to burn fat. That's empowering!

"Almost there" and "Are we there yet?"

There's an experience everyone that runs or hikes can relate to. People feel compelled to tell you that you are "almost there". It is a weird thing and it can get irritating. Do they think I don't know where I am? Do they think I'm not going to make it? How do they know what my idea of "almost there" is? What if I am in the moment and don't want to be pulled out of it. What if I relish a hike unfolding on it's own?

It's a different thing if someone asks for information. What I'm talking about is unsolicited, intrusive "help".

Experienced runners and hikers know better and volunteers at events are usually trained so it is typically the inexperienced that are the guilty parties. It's not their fault, they don't know any better. However, it is a common enough thing that it makes one wonder.

When I'm running I try not to think about where I am. I try to focus just on keeping a pace. When I get tired, I try to set short term goals. I focus on a landmark in the near distance. I only start to think about the finish when I can see it. Focusing only on the finish makes it seem harder, farther, tedious. Kids on a car trip will keep asking "are we there yet?". If you tell them that it's a long ways away they'll settle in and enjoy the trip.

"Almost there" and "Are we there yet?" are symptoms of goal obsession.

When I'm running or hiking I always have a goal but other than navigating a trail I generally don't think about the goal until I am there. I am running for exercise and hiking for pleasure. I've learned that only thinking about the goal makes the journey tedious. Also, over emphasizing the goal can make it anticlimactic. Often the coolest part of a hike is not the peak. If you only focus on the summit you will likely miss many opportunities along the way. That little waterfall, an amazing looking old tree, people you meet on the way, ...

The journey is as important as the goal. Sometimes it is more important than the goal. I suspect that this is true of life in general. One could even argue that the journey is more important than the goal.

That doesn't make goals unimportant. I want good exercise value when I run or hike so I have a pace or time in mind. I do want to summit the peak. A goal puts a journey in context. In the long term each individual goal is part of a bigger picture, a longer term or broader goal. Ursula K. LeGuin's "Paradise Lost" is about what can happen when the journey becomes the only thing.

A goal prevents complacency and stagnation. Set goals but don't obsess on them. Don't keep asking "Am I there yet?". Be open to enjoying the little things on the way. Take the time to sit by that little rock pool and cool off.

Get The Big Things Right First

At the Canadian Federal election earlier in the week, Stephen Harper's government was defeated. A couple of days later I was reading an article in the paper and got quite emotional. It was a first for me. I am typically ambivalent about Canadian politics.

Justin Trudeau, the new Primer Minister, promised to undo a wide range of Stephen Harper's decisions. First, to take us out of combat missions in Syria. This was the biggie. To me, our role in the world should not be militaristic. We have a weak military. It's not what we are about.

It's not that I'm against fighting. There are times when we should fight. I just don't see how engaging in active conflict in the Middle East is constructive. I was proud and relieved when we stayed out of the Iraq war.

Then there were Harper's policy changes to muzzle scientists and his stance on the environment. It was hard to believe how we could take such blatant steps backwards in terms of science and fact based decision making. Trudeau has vowed to undo some of these measures and to increase science based leadership with greater transparency than ever before.

I am sure that Trudeau's government will have many failings but I believe that these principled intentions are sincere. Trudeau has already informed Barack Obama of his intent to withdraw Canada from airstrikes in Syria. No pussyfooting around. I like that. I was surprised at how relieved I was.

Values and principles are very important. They substantially define what we are and how people think of us. It is easy to lose sight of the big picture and get too caught up in relatively little things.

We all need to remember to get the big things right. First. Always.

I will be happy with the new Liberal government if they can deliver on a handful of key promises and frankly I am not too worried about the remainder of the long list of promises. Some will be met, some won't. Whether they are or aren't won't substantially affect my quality of life or how the world sees our great country.

Weight and Health

Being generally healthy and having a healthy weight is actually very simple. There are three things to remember:

• Eat Less
• Eat Better
• Exercise More

It is really that simple. The hard part is in our heads.

Eat Less. If you are overweight, you are eating too much food. It is very difficult to exercise enough to bring your weight down if you are eating too much. Exercise is important but you have to reduce portion sizes and snacks. Avoid sugar and carbohydrates. Avoid pop/energy drinks. Drink water instead. 

Eat Better. Avoid junk foods, fast foods, processed foods. They have way more fat, salt and chemicals than you want. Buy raw foods. Vegetables, fruit, quality meats. Hot dogs are junk food. Flavored yogurts are junk food. Chips of any kind are junk food. Anything with added sugar is junk food. 

Exercise More. Exercise burns calories and improves your general health - heart, lungs, everything. You don't have to enjoy it. Just commit and do it. Running is fantastic. There is no way to cheat. If you can't run, walk until you can run. The more lean muscle mass you have the more calories your body burns. If you are trying to lose weight, consider weights or yoga. Almost anyone can do it, it only takes 20 min, three times a week to create a healthy exercise habit. Feeling healthy is a pretty powerful thing - you might even learn to enjoy exercising.

Can it be that simple?

Yes. That's all there is too it. Seriously, there is nothing complicated about it.

The challenge is purely mental. We like convenience foods, we like comfort foods, we like sugar, we like fries. We like to relax. All are habit forming. It takes discipline to maintain good eating and life habits.

There is no way to cheat. There is no magic pill. There is no super supplement. Daily TV shows don't tell you what you need to know. There's no money to be made in "Eat Less, Eat Better, Exercise More". It doesn't need a daily hour long show. That's 240 hours a year. Who wants to have these three things repeated for 240 hours a year.

That's the problem with the daily shows. They have to talk a load of nonsense to entertain and fill the time slot. If there is any good advice it is lost in the mire of misinformation, disinformation and filler. It's just entertainment - of the worst kind - it gives the impression that there's an easy way to be healthy. There is no easy way. There is no cheat. Spend the hour exercising and you will be way better off.

This advice doesn't even need a book. Lifestyle books have the same problem. To sell they have to have a certain page count. In the process of filling a page count the message is diluted or lost. Who want's to pay 13.95 for a 4 page book. Actually, it would be an interesting experiment to try to publish one.

It is a lifestyle change. that means breaking some current habits and making new ones.

It takes time to program a new habit. You have to stick with it for at least a month, maybe as long as three months. This is the time that you have to pay attention to what you are doing. If you allow yourself 3 indiscretions a day (sugar, junk food, etc.) you will have to count. This is the hard part. You have to be honest with yourself. Don't try to do too much at once. Baby steps, but you have to stick with them. If you do, after you have programmed a new habit it will be much easier to maintain.

The TV reality show Biggest Loser is all about reprogramming. The contestants participate for long enough to be reprogrammed and they have a very strict reinforcement - if they cheat they will fall below the bar and be sent home. They loose massive weight and many of them leave the show and continue to live healthy lives. It would be an amazing public service if they would let people at home participate online.

If you are overweight it is because you eat too much. Period. Too much.

If you don't feel healthy, energetic, it is probably because you are eating bad food and not exercising.

A small portion of the population has a real disease or condition that needs proper treatment. If this applies to you then you need to see a real doctor. However, most people that just generally feel crappy feel that way because they are overweight, eat crappy food and don't exercise.

Here is an amusing but sensible video by wounded combat veteran Derek Weida (be warned it is very politically incorrect but also very on point). Personally, I am refreshed to hear someone cutting through to the heart of the matter so frankly.

Take charge of your life. Don't believe anyone that is trying to sell you something. Don't believe anyone that is offering a short cut. Eat Less, Eat Better and Exercise More. That's all there is too it.